Match Excelsior vs Ajax February 1, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 1.83 — +11.6% better than the market.

Ajax enters this clash with a clear quality edge, boasting a potent attack against Excelsior's less robust defense. Despite Excelsior's slightly better recent form, Ajax's offensive firepower and experience on the road suggest they can break down the home side's compact block. The match hints at a moderately open tempo, favoring chances for both teams but with Ajax likely to control key moments.

Ajax's superior attacking index challenges Excelsior's defense.
Home momentum for Excelsior may keep the game competitive.
Moderate pace expected, supporting a balanced but Ajax-favored contest.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Away Win

Away Win @ 1.83 ✗ Lost

AI 61% Implied 55% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

EXC 4-1-4-1 · AJA 4-3-3

EXC · 4-1-4-1 4-3-3 · AJA

33 Bergraaf

📊 Statistics

EXC 2 – 2 AJA

48%

Possession (%)

52%

0.80

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.63

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

80%

Pass Accuracy (%)

81%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Excelsior and Ajax drew 2–2. At half-time it was 0–2.

From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 4 to 1.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.72 units (Brier 0.194).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	1.83	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.62	—	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.50	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.45	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.43	—	38%	Cashed	+1.43	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	2.08	—	39%	Cashed	+1.08	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.40	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.27	—	84%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.57	—	60%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.57	—	59%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
Under 1.5	5.11	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	—	95%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.18	—	81%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
Draw	4.15	—	23%	Cashed	+3.15	Cashed
Under 0.5	16.50	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	3.12	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	4.50	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.72u	−10% ROI