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Home Netherlands Eredivisie AZ Alkmaar — Excelsior

Predictions AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior January 21, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Netherlands   /   Eredivisie Value pick inside
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
Home · last 5 W D D D D
Kick-off
Wed 21 Jan · 17:45
1:1
Full-time
Excelsior
Excelsior
D W W D W Away · last 5
AFAS Stadion · Alkmaar Referee Alex Bos, Netherlands
Home Win · ALK
75%
Best 1.31
Draw
17%
Best 5.58
Away Win · EXC
8%
Best 8.50
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 7.50
Fair odds
6.52
book 7.50 · +15.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 15% · EV +15.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (85%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 74.8%
Odds 1.34
Show model details
Implied probability 74.6%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 17.2%
Odds 5.91
Show model details
Implied probability 16.9%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 8%
Odds 9.00
Show model details
Implied probability 11.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 3.5 Value pick
Probability 56.4%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Medium
Over 3.5
Probability 43.6%
Odds 1.99
Show model details
Implied probability 50.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 35.1%
Odds 3.10
Show model details
Implied probability 32.3%
Bet quality Medium
Under 1.5
Probability 15.3%
Odds 7.50
Show model details
Implied probability 13.3%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 64.9%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 4.3%
Odds 23.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.7%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 84.7%
Odds 1.13
Show model details
Implied probability 88.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 43.4%
Odds 2.30
Show model details
Implied probability 43.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 56.6%
Odds 1.68
Show model details
Implied probability 59.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 74.8%
Odds 1.12
Show model details
Implied probability 89.3%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 8%
Odds 6.70
Show model details
Implied probability 14.9%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 92%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 90.9%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 25.3%
Odds 3.55
Show model details
Implied probability 28.2%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
ALK – EXC @ 7.50
+15.0%
Edge
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