Match Ajax vs Excelsior November 22, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.89 — +5.6% better than the market.

Ajax holds a clear quality edge over Excelsior, boosted by a solid home advantage at Johan Cruijff Arena. Despite mixed recent form, Ajax's potent attack faces a less resilient Excelsior defense, suggesting a likely offensive edge. The pace hints at a moderately open game with chances for both sides, but Ajax's superior control and pressing should dominate.

Home momentum and tactical control
Excelsior's defensive struggles against strong offenses
Moderate tempo favoring Ajax's pressing style

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.89 ✓ Cashed

AI 56% Implied 53% +0.89u

+89%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

AJA 4-2-3-1 · EXC 4-2-3-1

AJA · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · EXC

25 Weghorst

📊 Statistics

AJA 1 – 2 EXC

64%

Possession (%)

36%

1.44

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.51

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

88%

Pass Accuracy (%)

79%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Excelsior won 2–1 away at Ajax. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 64% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 88% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.44 to 0.51. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 8, 5 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +7.66 units (Brier 0.306).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.89	—	56%	Cashed	+0.89	Cashed
BTTS No	2.30	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.70	—	57%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.12	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.95	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.11	—	91%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.37	—	73%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.44	—	65%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.13	—	73%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	6.75	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	5.55	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	—	96%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.14	—	85%	Cashed	+0.14	Cashed
Under 0.5	23.00	—	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	3.31	—	27%	Cashed	+2.31	Cashed
Away Win	8.25	—	9%	Cashed	+7.25	Cashed
AH Away 0	5.90	—	9%	Cashed	+4.90	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+7.66u	+45% ROI