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Home England Premier League Brighton — Arsenal

Predictions Brighton vs Arsenal March 4, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Brighton
Brighton
Home · last 5 W L W L L
Kick-off
Wed 04 Mar · 19:30
0:1
Full-time
Arsenal
Arsenal
W W W W W Away · last 5
American Express Stadium · Falmer, East Sussex Referee Chris Kavanagh, England
Home Win · BRI
13%
Best 5.08
Draw
22%
Best 3.91
Away Win · ARS
65%
Best 1.67
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 3.40
Fair odds
3.10
book 3.40 · +9.7% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 32% · EV +9.7%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (68%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Top pick
Probability 64.8%
Odds 1.68
Show model details
Implied probability 59.5%
Bet quality High
Draw
Probability 21.8%
Odds 4.40
Show model details
Implied probability 22.7%
Bet quality Low
Home Win
Probability 13.4%
Odds 5.50
Show model details
Implied probability 18.2%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 2.5
Probability 54.3%
Odds 1.97
Show model details
Implied probability 50.8%
Bet quality Medium
Under 2.5
Probability 45.7%
Odds 1.97
Show model details
Implied probability 50.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 32.3%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Medium
Over 1.5
Probability 77.5%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 76.9%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 93.5%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 67.7%
Odds 1.35
Show model details
Implied probability 74.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 22.5%
Odds 3.81
Show model details
Implied probability 26.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 6.5%
Odds 12.20
Show model details
Implied probability 8.2%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Top pick
Probability 53.4%
Odds 1.99
Show model details
Implied probability 50.3%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS No
Probability 46.6%
Odds 1.93
Show model details
Implied probability 51.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Top pick
Probability 64.8%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Medium
AH Home 0
Probability 13.4%
Odds 4.00
Show model details
Implied probability 25%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X
Probability 35.2%
Odds 2.36
Show model details
Implied probability 42.4%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 86.6%
Odds 1.20
Show model details
Implied probability 83.3%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
BRI – ARS @ 3.40
+9.7%
Edge
Forecast →