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Home England Premier League Manchester City — Nottingham Forest

Predictions Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest March 4, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Manchester City
Manchester City
Home · last 5 D W W D L
Kick-off
Wed 04 Mar · 19:30
2:2
Full-time
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
W W D L D Away · last 5
Etihad Stadium · Manchester Referee Darren England, England
Home Win · MCI
74%
Best 1.41
Draw
18%
Best 4.78
Away Win · NOT
8%
Best 7.18
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 5.60
Fair odds
5.01
book 5.60 · +11.7% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 20% · EV +11.7%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (80%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 73.8%
Odds 1.41
Show model details
Implied probability 70.9%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 18.3%
Odds 5.60
Show model details
Implied probability 17.9%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 7.9%
Odds 9.50
Show model details
Implied probability 10.5%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 42.3%
Odds 2.55
Show model details
Implied probability 39.2%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 1.63
Show model details
Implied probability 61.4%
Bet quality Medium
Over 3.5
Probability 35.5%
Odds 2.49
Show model details
Implied probability 40.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 20%
Odds 5.60
Show model details
Implied probability 17.9%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 57.8%
Odds 1.58
Show model details
Implied probability 63.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 5.6%
Odds 18.50
Show model details
Implied probability 5.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 94.4%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 80.1%
Odds 1.19
Show model details
Implied probability 84%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 50.1%
Odds 2.05
Show model details
Implied probability 48.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes
Probability 49.9%
Odds 1.87
Show model details
Implied probability 53.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 73.8%
Odds 1.14
Show model details
Implied probability 87.7%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 7.9%
Odds 5.75
Show model details
Implied probability 17.4%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 92.2%
Odds 1.11
Show model details
Implied probability 90.1%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 26.2%
Odds 3.35
Show model details
Implied probability 29.9%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
MCI – NOT @ 5.60
+11.7%
Edge
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