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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Casa Pia — Rio Ave

Predictions Casa Pia vs Rio Ave May 16, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
Home · last 5 L W D D W
Kick-off
Sat 16 May · 17:00
1:1
Full-time
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
D L D L D Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior · Rio Maior Referee H. Malheiro
Home Win · CAS
49%
Best 1.77
Draw
23%
Best 3.93
Away Win · RIO
28%
Best 4.75
Value pick
Double Chance X2
@ 2.22
Fair odds
1.95
book 2.22 · +14.1% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 51% · EV +14.1%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Double Chance 1X is more likely (72%), but Double Chance X2 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 48.6%
Odds 1.71
Show model details
Implied probability 58.5%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 28.4%
Odds 4.89
Show model details
Implied probability 20.5%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 23.1%
Odds 4.16
Show model details
Implied probability 24%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 57.9%
Odds 2.05
Show model details
Implied probability 48.8%
Bet quality High
Over 2.5
Probability 42.1%
Odds 1.85
Show model details
Implied probability 54.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 12.2%
Odds 13.00
Show model details
Implied probability 7.7%
Bet quality Medium
Under 1.5
Probability 35%
Odds 3.75
Show model details
Implied probability 26.7%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 78.4%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.5%
Bet quality Medium
Over 3.5
Probability 21.6%
Odds 3.00
Show model details
Implied probability 33.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 87.8%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 65%
Odds 1.25
Show model details
Implied probability 80%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Value pick
Probability 57.1%
Odds 2.05
Show model details
Implied probability 48.8%
Bet quality High
BTTS Yes
Probability 42.9%
Odds 1.80
Show model details
Implied probability 55.6%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 28.4%
Odds 3.45
Show model details
Implied probability 29%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 48.6%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 76.9%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 51.4%
Odds 2.22
Show model details
Implied probability 45.1%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 71.7%
Odds 1.20
Show model details
Implied probability 83.3%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
CAS – RIO @ 2.22
+14.1%
Edge
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