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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Arouca — Tondela

Predictions Arouca vs Tondela May 16, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Arouca
Arouca
Home · last 5 W L D W W
Kick-off
Sat 16 May · 17:00
3:1
Full-time
Tondela
Tondela
L D W W L Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Arouca · Arouca Referee A. Nobre
Home Win · ARO
40%
Best 3.30
Draw
25%
Best 3.66
Away Win · TON
35%
Best 2.19
Value pick
Under 0.5
@ 11.50
Fair odds
10.13
book 11.50 · +13.5% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 10% · EV +13.5%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 0.5 is more likely (90%), but Under 0.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win
Probability 34.9%
Odds 2.24
Show model details
Implied probability 44.6%
Bet quality Low
Home Win Best in group
Probability 39.7%
Odds 3.22
Show model details
Implied probability 31.1%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 25.4%
Odds 3.66
Show model details
Implied probability 27.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 55.9%
Odds 2.00
Show model details
Implied probability 50%
Bet quality High
Over 2.5
Probability 44.1%
Odds 1.88
Show model details
Implied probability 53.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 31.2%
Odds 3.75
Show model details
Implied probability 26.7%
Bet quality Medium
Under 0.5
Probability 9.9%
Odds 11.50
Show model details
Implied probability 8.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 76.4%
Odds 1.33
Show model details
Implied probability 75.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 90.1%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 68.8%
Odds 1.25
Show model details
Implied probability 80%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 23.6%
Odds 3.25
Show model details
Implied probability 30.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Value pick
Probability 51.5%
Odds 2.10
Show model details
Implied probability 47.6%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes
Probability 48.5%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 39.7%
Odds 2.36
Show model details
Implied probability 42.4%
Bet quality Low
AH Away 0
Probability 34.9%
Odds 1.65
Show model details
Implied probability 60.6%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 65.1%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality High
Double Chance X2
Probability 60.3%
Odds 1.38
Show model details
Implied probability 72.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 0.5
ARO – TON @ 11.50
+13.5%
Edge
Forecast →