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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Estoril — Benfica

Predictions Estoril vs Benfica May 16, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Estoril
Estoril
Home · last 5 L L D D L
Kick-off
Sat 16 May · 19:30
1:3
Full-time
Benfica
Benfica
W W D D W Away · last 5
Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota · Estoril Referee M. Nogueira
Home Win · EST
9%
Best 11.40
Draw
18%
Best 7.21
Away Win · BEN
77%
Best 1.27
Value pick
Draw
@ 6.00
Fair odds
5.52
book 6.00 · +8.8% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 18% · EV +8.8%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Away Win is more likely (77%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 18.1%
Odds 6.00
Show model details
Implied probability 16.7%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win Top pick
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.27
Show model details
Implied probability 78.7%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win
Probability 8.6%
Odds 8.40
Show model details
Implied probability 11.9%
Bet quality Low
Totals 6 markets
Under 3.5
Probability 55.7%
Odds 1.84
Show model details
Implied probability 54.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 44.3%
Odds 2.05
Show model details
Implied probability 48.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 34.4%
Odds 2.88
Show model details
Implied probability 34.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 65.6%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 15.5%
Odds 6.50
Show model details
Implied probability 15.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5 Best in group
Probability 84.6%
Odds 1.11
Show model details
Implied probability 90.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 58%
Odds 1.67
Show model details
Implied probability 59.9%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No
Probability 42%
Odds 2.17
Show model details
Implied probability 46.1%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Top pick
Probability 73.3%
Odds 1.11
Show model details
Implied probability 90.1%
Bet quality Medium
AH Home 0
Probability 8.6%
Odds 6.60
Show model details
Implied probability 15.2%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 91.4%
Odds 1.08
Show model details
Implied probability 92.6%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X
Probability 26.7%
Odds 3.44
Show model details
Implied probability 29.1%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
EST – BEN @ 6.00
+8.8%
Edge
Forecast →