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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Nacional — Guimaraes

Predictions Nacional vs Guimaraes May 16, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Nacional
Nacional
Home · last 5 W W L L W
Kick-off
Sat 16 May · 17:00
2:0
Full-time
Guimaraes
Guimaraes
W W L L L Away · last 5
Referee R. Baixinho
Home Win · NAC
39%
Best 2.22
Draw
26%
Best 3.34
Away Win · GUI
35%
Best 3.54
Value pick
Double Chance X2
@ 1.81
Fair odds
1.64
book 1.81 · +10.6% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
High
p 61% · EV +10.6%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Double Chance 1X is more likely (65%), but Double Chance X2 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 38.9%
Odds 2.07
Show model details
Implied probability 48.3%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 35.4%
Odds 3.87
Show model details
Implied probability 25.8%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 25.7%
Odds 3.50
Show model details
Implied probability 28.6%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 52.1%
Odds 2.09
Show model details
Implied probability 47.9%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 48%
Odds 1.81
Show model details
Implied probability 55.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 27.4%
Odds 2.75
Show model details
Implied probability 36.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 27.5%
Odds 4.00
Show model details
Implied probability 25%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 72.6%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 8.4%
Odds 13.00
Show model details
Implied probability 7.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 91.6%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 72.5%
Odds 1.22
Show model details
Implied probability 82%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 48%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 52%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 35.4%
Odds 2.77
Show model details
Implied probability 36.1%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 38.9%
Odds 1.49
Show model details
Implied probability 67.1%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 61.1%
Odds 1.81
Show model details
Implied probability 55.3%
Bet quality High
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 64.6%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 76.9%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
NAC – GUI @ 1.81
+10.6%
Edge
Forecast →