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Home Portugal Primeira Liga FC Porto — Santa Clara

Predictions FC Porto vs Santa Clara May 16, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
FC Porto
FC Porto
Home · last 5 W W W L W
Kick-off
Sat 16 May · 14:30
1:0
Full-time
Santa Clara
Santa Clara
D W D W L Away · last 5
Estádio do Dragão · Porto Referee Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal
Home Win · POR
73%
Best 1.34
Draw
20%
Best 5.62
Away Win · SAN
8%
Best 9.50
Value pick
Draw
@ 5.40
Fair odds
5.13
book 5.40 · +5.2% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 19% · EV +5.2%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (73%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 19.5%
Odds 5.40
Show model details
Implied probability 18.5%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win Top pick
Probability 72.8%
Odds 1.35
Show model details
Implied probability 74.1%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 7.7%
Odds 9.40
Show model details
Implied probability 10.6%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 47.1%
Odds 2.10
Show model details
Implied probability 47.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 52.9%
Odds 1.80
Show model details
Implied probability 55.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 32.1%
Odds 2.75
Show model details
Implied probability 36.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 68%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 93.1%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 23.7%
Odds 4.00
Show model details
Implied probability 25%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 76.3%
Odds 1.22
Show model details
Implied probability 82%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 6.9%
Odds 13.00
Show model details
Implied probability 7.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes
Probability 46.6%
Odds 2.06
Show model details
Implied probability 48.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 53.4%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 72.8%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 90.9%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 7.7%
Odds 7.00
Show model details
Implied probability 14.3%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 92.3%
Odds 1.07
Show model details
Implied probability 93.5%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 27.2%
Odds 3.36
Show model details
Implied probability 29.8%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
POR – SAN @ 5.40
+5.2%
Edge
Forecast →