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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Tondela — Moreirense

Predictions Tondela vs Moreirense May 11, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Tondela
Tondela
Home · last 5 L D W W L
Kick-off
Mon 11 May · 19:15
2:0
Full-time
Moreirense
Moreirense
W L W L D Away · last 5
Estádio João Cardoso · Tondela Referee R. Baixinho
Home Win · TON
42%
Best 1.94
Draw
26%
Best 3.58
Away Win · MOR
32%
Best 4.21
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 3.40
Fair odds
2.98
book 3.40 · +14.2% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 34% · EV +14.2%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (66%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 42%
Odds 1.95
Show model details
Implied probability 51.3%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 32.1%
Odds 4.10
Show model details
Implied probability 24.4%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 25.9%
Odds 3.66
Show model details
Implied probability 27.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 59.4%
Odds 1.83
Show model details
Implied probability 54.6%
Bet quality High
Over 2.5
Probability 40.6%
Odds 2.06
Show model details
Implied probability 48.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 33.6%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Medium
Under 0.5
Probability 10.9%
Odds 10.00
Show model details
Implied probability 10%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 89.1%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 66.4%
Odds 1.33
Show model details
Implied probability 75.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 21.2%
Odds 3.50
Show model details
Implied probability 28.6%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Top pick
Probability 54.4%
Odds 1.95
Show model details
Implied probability 51.3%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes
Probability 45.6%
Odds 1.87
Show model details
Implied probability 53.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 32.1%
Odds 3.00
Show model details
Implied probability 33.3%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 42%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 58%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 67.9%
Odds 1.26
Show model details
Implied probability 79.4%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
TON – MOR @ 3.40
+14.2%
Edge
Forecast →