P
Prognosist
P
Home Portugal Primeira Liga FC Porto — Alverca

Predictions FC Porto vs Alverca May 2, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
FC Porto
FC Porto
Home · last 5 W W W L W
Kick-off
Sat 02 May · 19:30
1:0
Full-time
Alverca
Alverca
L W L D L Away · last 5
Estádio do Dragão · Porto Referee David Rafael Oliveira da Silva, Portugal
Home Win · POR
79%
Best 1.19
Draw
16%
Best 7.60
Away Win · ALV
5%
Best 17.00
Value pick
Double Chance X2
@ 5.00
Fair odds
4.74
book 5.00 · +5.4% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 21% · EV +5.4%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Double Chance 1X is more likely (95%), but Double Chance X2 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 15.7%
Odds 7.48
Show model details
Implied probability 13.4%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win Top pick
Probability 78.9%
Odds 1.20
Show model details
Implied probability 83.3%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 5.4%
Odds 16.00
Show model details
Implied probability 6.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 40.8%
Odds 2.43
Show model details
Implied probability 41.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 59.2%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 37.8%
Odds 2.40
Show model details
Implied probability 41.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 62.2%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 19.6%
Odds 5.00
Show model details
Implied probability 20%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 94.4%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 80.4%
Odds 1.17
Show model details
Implied probability 85.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 5.7%
Odds 16.50
Show model details
Implied probability 6.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes
Probability 46.5%
Odds 2.22
Show model details
Implied probability 45.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 53.5%
Odds 1.65
Show model details
Implied probability 60.6%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 78.9%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 5.4%
Odds 9.00
Show model details
Implied probability 11.1%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 21.1%
Odds 5.00
Show model details
Implied probability 20%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 94.6%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
POR – ALV @ 5.00
+5.4%
Edge
Forecast →