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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Benfica — Moreirense

Predictions Benfica vs Moreirense April 25, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Benfica
Benfica
Home · last 5 W W D D W
Kick-off
Sat 25 Apr · 17:00
4:1
Full-time
Moreirense
Moreirense
W L W L D Away · last 5
Referee Vasilica Iancu, Portugal
Home Win · BEN
83%
Best 1.11
Draw
13%
Best 12.60
Away Win · MOR
4%
Best 31.00
Value pick
Draw
@ 8.30
Fair odds
7.46
book 8.30 · +11.2% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 13% · EV +11.2%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (83%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 13.4%
Odds 8.30
Show model details
Implied probability 12.1%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win Top pick
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.13
Show model details
Implied probability 88.5%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 4.1%
Odds 17.00
Show model details
Implied probability 5.9%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 3.5
Probability 57.6%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 36.2%
Odds 2.70
Show model details
Implied probability 37%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 42.4%
Odds 2.12
Show model details
Implied probability 47.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 63.8%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.4%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 16.7%
Odds 5.67
Show model details
Implied probability 17.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 83.3%
Odds 1.12
Show model details
Implied probability 89.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 4.6%
Odds 19.50
Show model details
Implied probability 5.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes
Probability 45.7%
Odds 2.30
Show model details
Implied probability 43.5%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 54.3%
Odds 1.55
Show model details
Implied probability 64.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 4.1%
Odds 13.50
Show model details
Implied probability 7.4%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 95.9%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 17.5%
Odds 5.78
Show model details
Implied probability 17.3%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
BEN – MOR @ 8.30
+11.2%
Edge
Forecast →