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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Nacional — Alverca

Predictions Nacional vs Alverca April 18, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Nacional
Nacional
Home · last 5 W W L L W
Kick-off
Sat 18 Apr · 14:30
1:0
Full-time
Alverca
Alverca
L W L D L Away · last 5
Referee Miguel Nogueira, Portugal
Home Win · NAC
35%
Best 2.25
Draw
26%
Best 3.35
Away Win · ALV
39%
Best 3.10
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 3.75
Fair odds
3.36
book 3.75 · +11.5% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 30% · EV +11.5%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (70%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win
Probability 35.3%
Odds 2.28
Show model details
Implied probability 43.9%
Bet quality Low
Away Win Best in group
Probability 38.6%
Odds 3.26
Show model details
Implied probability 30.7%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 26.1%
Odds 3.50
Show model details
Implied probability 28.6%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 55%
Odds 1.97
Show model details
Implied probability 50.8%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 45%
Odds 1.92
Show model details
Implied probability 52.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 29.7%
Odds 3.75
Show model details
Implied probability 26.7%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 75.5%
Odds 1.37
Show model details
Implied probability 73%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 9.5%
Odds 11.00
Show model details
Implied probability 9.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 90.5%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 76.9%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 24.5%
Odds 3.25
Show model details
Implied probability 30.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Top pick
Probability 50.2%
Odds 2.10
Show model details
Implied probability 47.6%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes
Probability 49.8%
Odds 1.71
Show model details
Implied probability 58.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 38.6%
Odds 2.35
Show model details
Implied probability 42.6%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0
Probability 35.3%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 64.7%
Odds 1.67
Show model details
Implied probability 59.9%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X
Probability 61.4%
Odds 1.38
Show model details
Implied probability 72.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
NAC – ALV @ 3.75
+11.5%
Edge
Forecast →