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Home Portugal Primeira Liga FC Porto — Tondela

Predictions FC Porto vs Tondela April 19, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
FC Porto
FC Porto
Home · last 5 W W W L W
Kick-off
Sun 19 Apr · 19:30
2:0
Full-time
Tondela
Tondela
L D W W L Away · last 5
Estádio do Dragão · Porto Referee Claudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira, Portugal
Home Win · POR
82%
Best 1.17
Draw
15%
Best 6.60
Away Win · TON
4%
Best 17.50
Value pick
BTTS Yes
@ 2.62
Fair odds
2.35
book 2.62 · +11.7% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 43% · EV +11.7%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — BTTS No is more likely (57%), but BTTS Yes is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 14.7%
Odds 7.50
Show model details
Implied probability 13.3%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win Top pick
Probability 81.6%
Odds 1.20
Show model details
Implied probability 83.3%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 3.6%
Odds 20.00
Show model details
Implied probability 5%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 43.6%
Odds 2.26
Show model details
Implied probability 44.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 56.4%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 34.7%
Odds 2.67
Show model details
Implied probability 37.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 65.3%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 93.7%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 78.4%
Odds 1.22
Show model details
Implied probability 82%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 21.6%
Odds 4.40
Show model details
Implied probability 22.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 6.3%
Odds 14.10
Show model details
Implied probability 7.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes
Probability 42.6%
Odds 2.62
Show model details
Implied probability 38.2%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 57.4%
Odds 1.49
Show model details
Implied probability 67.1%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 81.6%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 3.6%
Odds 13.00
Show model details
Implied probability 7.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 96.4%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 18.4%
Odds 5.35
Show model details
Implied probability 18.7%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · BTTS Yes
POR – TON @ 2.62
+11.7%
Edge
Forecast →