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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Casa Pia — Benfica

Predictions Casa Pia vs Benfica April 6, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
Home · last 5 L W D D W
Kick-off
Mon 06 Apr · 19:45
1:1
Full-time
Benfica
Benfica
W W D D W Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior · Rio Maior Referee Helder Filipe Claudio Carvalho, Portugal
Home Win · CAS
5%
Best 12.75
Draw
16%
Best 6.22
Away Win · BEN
79%
Best 1.22
Value pick
Under 2.5
@ 2.55
Fair odds
2.29
book 2.55 · +11.2% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 44% · EV +11.2%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 2.5 is more likely (56%), but Under 2.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 16%
Odds 6.60
Show model details
Implied probability 15.2%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win Top pick
Probability 79.1%
Odds 1.25
Show model details
Implied probability 80%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win
Probability 4.9%
Odds 15.00
Show model details
Implied probability 6.7%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 3.5 Value pick
Probability 65.1%
Odds 1.66
Show model details
Implied probability 60.2%
Bet quality High
Under 2.5
Probability 43.6%
Odds 2.55
Show model details
Implied probability 39.2%
Bet quality Medium
Over 3.5
Probability 34.9%
Odds 2.38
Show model details
Implied probability 42%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 21%
Odds 5.50
Show model details
Implied probability 18.2%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 56.4%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 6%
Odds 18.00
Show model details
Implied probability 5.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 94%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 79%
Odds 1.18
Show model details
Implied probability 84.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes
Probability 46.1%
Odds 2.12
Show model details
Implied probability 47.2%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 53.9%
Odds 1.80
Show model details
Implied probability 55.6%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Top pick
Probability 79.1%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Medium
AH Home 0
Probability 4.9%
Odds 9.10
Show model details
Implied probability 11%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 95.2%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X
Probability 20.9%
Odds 4.25
Show model details
Implied probability 23.5%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
CAS – BEN @ 2.55
+11.2%
Edge
Forecast →