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Home England Premier League Arsenal — Chelsea

Predictions Arsenal vs Chelsea March 1, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Arsenal
Arsenal
Home · last 5 W W W W W
Kick-off
Sun 01 Mar · 16:30
2:1
Full-time
Chelsea
Chelsea
L L D W L Away · last 5
Emirates Stadium · London Referee Darren England, England
Home Win · ARS
65%
Best 1.57
Draw
22%
Best 4.28
Away Win · CHE
13%
Best 5.70
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 2.88
Fair odds
2.51
book 2.88 · +15.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 40% · EV +15.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (60%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 64.9%
Odds 1.66
Show model details
Implied probability 60.2%
Bet quality High
Draw
Probability 22.2%
Odds 4.26
Show model details
Implied probability 23.5%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 13%
Odds 5.64
Show model details
Implied probability 17.7%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 2.5 Value pick
Probability 61.3%
Odds 1.82
Show model details
Implied probability 55%
Bet quality High
Under 2.5
Probability 38.7%
Odds 2.22
Show model details
Implied probability 45.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 39.9%
Odds 2.88
Show model details
Implied probability 34.7%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 60.1%
Odds 1.47
Show model details
Implied probability 68%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds 1.24
Show model details
Implied probability 80.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 18.1%
Odds 4.33
Show model details
Implied probability 23.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 5%
Odds 15.00
Show model details
Implied probability 6.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Top pick
Probability 60%
Odds 1.78
Show model details
Implied probability 56.2%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS No
Probability 40.1%
Odds 2.15
Show model details
Implied probability 46.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 64.9%
Odds 1.25
Show model details
Implied probability 80%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 13%
Odds 4.20
Show model details
Implied probability 23.8%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 35.1%
Odds 2.40
Show model details
Implied probability 41.7%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 87.1%
Odds 1.18
Show model details
Implied probability 84.8%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
ARS – CHE @ 2.88
+15.0%
Edge
Forecast →