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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Arouca — Benfica

Predictions Arouca vs Benfica March 14, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Arouca
Arouca
Home · last 5 W L D W W
Kick-off
Sat 14 Mar · 20:30
1:2
Full-time
Benfica
Benfica
W W D D W Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Arouca · Arouca Referee Jose Bessa, Portugal
Home Win · ARO
6%
Best 9.60
Draw
17%
Best 5.65
Away Win · BEN
77%
Best 1.29
Value pick
Under 2.5
@ 2.36
Fair odds
2.27
book 2.36 · +3.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
3
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 44% · EV +3.9%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 2.5 is more likely (56%), but Under 2.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Top pick
Probability 77.1%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 17.1%
Odds 6.01
Show model details
Implied probability 16.6%
Bet quality Low
Home Win
Probability 5.8%
Odds 12.50
Show model details
Implied probability 8%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 44%
Odds 2.36
Show model details
Implied probability 42.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 56%
Odds 1.65
Show model details
Implied probability 60.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 34.3%
Odds 2.55
Show model details
Implied probability 39.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 65.7%
Odds 1.55
Show model details
Implied probability 64.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 22.1%
Odds 4.52
Show model details
Implied probability 22.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 93.7%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 6.4%
Odds 15.00
Show model details
Implied probability 6.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 77.9%
Odds 1.21
Show model details
Implied probability 82.6%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes
Probability 46.4%
Odds 2.18
Show model details
Implied probability 45.9%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 53.6%
Odds 1.72
Show model details
Implied probability 58.1%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Top pick
Probability 77.1%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Medium
AH Home 0
Probability 5.8%
Odds 8.10
Show model details
Implied probability 12.4%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 94.2%
Odds 1.07
Show model details
Implied probability 93.5%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X
Probability 22.9%
Odds 4.00
Show model details
Implied probability 25%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
ARO – BEN @ 2.36
+3.9%
Edge
Forecast →