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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Sporting CP — Tondela

Predictions Sporting CP vs Tondela April 29, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Sporting CP
Sporting CP
Home · last 5 D D W W W
Kick-off
Wed 29 Apr · 19:15
2:2
Full-time
Tondela
Tondela
L D W W L Away · last 5
Estádio da Luz · Lisbon Referee F. Verissimo
Home Win · SPO
84%
Best 1.10
Draw
13%
Best 13.50
Away Win · TON
3%
Best 27.00
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 2.16
Fair odds
2.12
book 2.16 · +1.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 47% · EV +1.9%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (53%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 13.2%
Odds 8.75
Show model details
Implied probability 11.4%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win Top pick
Probability 83.5%
Odds 1.15
Show model details
Implied probability 87%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 3.3%
Odds 22.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.6%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 3.5
Probability 47.2%
Odds 2.16
Show model details
Implied probability 46.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 52.8%
Odds 1.76
Show model details
Implied probability 56.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 32.2%
Odds 2.70
Show model details
Implied probability 37%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 67.8%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 96.2%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 86.5%
Odds 1.13
Show model details
Implied probability 88.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 13.5%
Odds 6.50
Show model details
Implied probability 15.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 3.9%
Odds 20.00
Show model details
Implied probability 5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes
Probability 48.5%
Odds 2.38
Show model details
Implied probability 42%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 51.5%
Odds 1.65
Show model details
Implied probability 60.6%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 83.5%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 3.3%
Odds 15.00
Show model details
Implied probability 6.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 96.7%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 16.5%
Odds 6.10
Show model details
Implied probability 16.4%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
SPO – TON @ 2.16
+1.9%
Edge
Forecast →