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Home Portugal Primeira Liga FC Porto — Arouca

Predictions FC Porto vs Arouca February 27, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
FC Porto
FC Porto
Home · last 5 W W W L W
Kick-off
Fri 27 Feb · 18:45
3:1
Full-time
Arouca
Arouca
W L D W W Away · last 5
Estádio do Dragão · Porto Referee Vasilica Iancu, Portugal
Home Win · POR
82%
Best 1.20
Draw
14%
Best 6.33
Away Win · ARO
4%
Best 13.25
Value pick
Draw
@ 7.80
Fair odds
6.97
book 7.80 · +11.8% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 14% · EV +11.8%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (82%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 14.3%
Odds 7.80
Show model details
Implied probability 12.8%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win Top pick
Probability 81.5%
Odds 1.20
Show model details
Implied probability 83.3%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 4.2%
Odds 17.50
Show model details
Implied probability 5.7%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 43.2%
Odds 2.41
Show model details
Implied probability 41.5%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 56.8%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 35%
Odds 2.50
Show model details
Implied probability 40%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 65%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 21.2%
Odds 4.80
Show model details
Implied probability 20.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 5.9%
Odds 17.00
Show model details
Implied probability 5.9%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 94.1%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.19
Show model details
Implied probability 84%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes
Probability 42.8%
Odds 2.40
Show model details
Implied probability 41.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 57.2%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 81.5%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 4.2%
Odds 9.90
Show model details
Implied probability 10.1%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 95.8%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 18.5%
Odds 5.00
Show model details
Implied probability 20%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
POR – ARO @ 7.80
+11.8%
Edge
Forecast →