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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Guimaraes — Moreirense

Predictions Guimaraes vs Moreirense January 30, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Guimaraes
Guimaraes
Home · last 5 W W L L L
Kick-off
Fri 30 Jan · 20:45
1:0
Full-time
Moreirense
Moreirense
W L W L D Away · last 5
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques · Guimaraes Referee Antonio Nobre, Portugal
Home Win · GUI
39%
Best 1.90
Draw
28%
Best 3.27
Away Win · MOR
33%
Best 4.40
Value pick
Double Chance X2
@ 1.82
Fair odds
1.64
book 1.82 · +10.8% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
High
p 61% · EV +10.8%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Double Chance 1X is more likely (67%), but Double Chance X2 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 39.1%
Odds 2.16
Show model details
Implied probability 46.3%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 33.2%
Odds 4.10
Show model details
Implied probability 24.4%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 27.8%
Odds 3.35
Show model details
Implied probability 29.9%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 2.5
Probability 41%
Odds 2.38
Show model details
Implied probability 42%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 59%
Odds 1.64
Show model details
Implied probability 61%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 66.9%
Odds 1.47
Show model details
Implied probability 68%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 33.1%
Odds 2.88
Show model details
Implied probability 34.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 89%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 90.9%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.22
Show model details
Implied probability 82%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 21.2%
Odds 4.44
Show model details
Implied probability 22.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 11%
Odds 8.00
Show model details
Implied probability 12.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 54%
Odds 1.80
Show model details
Implied probability 55.6%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes
Probability 46%
Odds 2.09
Show model details
Implied probability 47.9%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 33.2%
Odds 2.85
Show model details
Implied probability 35.1%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 39.1%
Odds 1.47
Show model details
Implied probability 68%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 60.9%
Odds 1.82
Show model details
Implied probability 55%
Bet quality High
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 66.9%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
GUI – MOR @ 1.82
+10.8%
Edge
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