P
Prognosist
P
Home Portugal Primeira Liga Arouca — Sporting CP

Predictions Arouca vs Sporting CP January 24, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Arouca
Arouca
Home · last 5 W L D W W
Kick-off
Sat 24 Jan · 18:00
1:2
Full-time
Sporting CP
Sporting CP
D D W W W Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Arouca · Arouca Referee Helder Filipe Claudio Carvalho, Portugal
Home Win · ARO
6%
Best 8.70
Draw
16%
Best 5.65
Away Win · SPO
79%
Best 1.31
Value pick
Draw
@ 7.01
Fair odds
6.45
book 7.01 · +8.7% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 16% · EV +8.7%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Away Win is more likely (79%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 15.5%
Odds 7.01
Show model details
Implied probability 14.3%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win Top pick
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.27
Show model details
Implied probability 78.7%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win
Probability 5.7%
Odds 13.00
Show model details
Implied probability 7.7%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 3.5
Probability 41.4%
Odds 2.47
Show model details
Implied probability 40.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 63%
Odds 1.60
Show model details
Implied probability 62.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.60
Show model details
Implied probability 62.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 37%
Odds 2.45
Show model details
Implied probability 40.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.5%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 82.8%
Odds 1.19
Show model details
Implied probability 84%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 17.2%
Odds 5.00
Show model details
Implied probability 20%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 4.6%
Odds 18.00
Show model details
Implied probability 5.6%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes
Probability 46.2%
Odds 2.22
Show model details
Implied probability 45.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 53.8%
Odds 1.77
Show model details
Implied probability 56.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Top pick
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Medium
AH Home 0
Probability 5.7%
Odds 6.70
Show model details
Implied probability 14.9%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 94.3%
Odds 1.07
Show model details
Implied probability 93.5%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X
Probability 21.2%
Odds 4.26
Show model details
Implied probability 23.5%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
ARO – SPO @ 7.01
+8.7%
Edge
Forecast →