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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Alverca — Moreirense

Predictions Alverca vs Moreirense January 17, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Alverca
Alverca
Home · last 5 L W L D L
Kick-off
Sat 17 Jan · 18:00
2:1
Full-time
Moreirense
Moreirense
W L W L D Away · last 5
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca · Alverca do Ribatejo Referee Luís Godinho, Portugal
Home Win · ALV
29%
Best 2.36
Draw
29%
Best 2.87
Away Win · MOR
42%
Best 3.48
Value pick
Over 2.5
@ 2.50
Fair odds
2.33
book 2.50 · +7.3% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 43% · EV +7.3%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 2.5 is more likely (57%), but Over 2.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win
Probability 29.1%
Odds 2.70
Show model details
Implied probability 37%
Bet quality Low
Away Win Best in group
Probability 42.4%
Odds 2.95
Show model details
Implied probability 33.9%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 28.5%
Odds 3.20
Show model details
Implied probability 31.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 2.5
Probability 42.9%
Odds 2.50
Show model details
Implied probability 40%
Bet quality Medium
Under 2.5
Probability 57.1%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 31.7%
Odds 2.75
Show model details
Implied probability 36.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 22.6%
Odds 4.71
Show model details
Implied probability 21.2%
Bet quality Medium
Over 1.5
Probability 68.3%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 89.8%
Odds 1.11
Show model details
Implied probability 90.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 77.4%
Odds 1.20
Show model details
Implied probability 83.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 10.2%
Odds 8.00
Show model details
Implied probability 12.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes
Probability 48.3%
Odds 2.05
Show model details
Implied probability 48.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 51.7%
Odds 1.85
Show model details
Implied probability 54.1%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 42.4%
Odds 2.02
Show model details
Implied probability 49.5%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0
Probability 29.1%
Odds 1.88
Show model details
Implied probability 53.2%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 70.9%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X
Probability 57.6%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 2.5
ALV – MOR @ 2.50
+7.3%
Edge
Forecast →