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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Sporting CP — Casa Pia

Predictions Sporting CP vs Casa Pia January 16, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Sporting CP
Sporting CP
Home · last 5 D D W W W
Kick-off
Fri 16 Jan · 20:15
3:0
Full-time
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
L W D D W Away · last 5
Estádio da Luz · Lisbon Referee David Rafael Oliveira da Silva, Portugal
Home Win · SPO
84%
Best 1.18
Draw
13%
Best 7.10
Away Win · CAS
4%
Best 13.38
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 2.26
Fair odds
2.05
book 2.26 · +10.4% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 49% · EV +10.4%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (51%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 13%
Odds 9.15
Show model details
Implied probability 10.9%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win Top pick
Probability 83.5%
Odds 1.17
Show model details
Implied probability 85.5%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 3.5%
Odds 21.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.8%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 3.5
Probability 48.8%
Odds 2.26
Show model details
Implied probability 44.3%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 51.2%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 30.9%
Odds 2.65
Show model details
Implied probability 37.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 69.2%
Odds 1.52
Show model details
Implied probability 65.8%
Bet quality Medium
Over 1.5
Probability 86.8%
Odds 1.16
Show model details
Implied probability 86.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 96.3%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 13.2%
Odds 6.00
Show model details
Implied probability 16.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 3.7%
Odds 19.50
Show model details
Implied probability 5.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes
Probability 47.1%
Odds 2.55
Show model details
Implied probability 39.2%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 52.9%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 83.5%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 3.5%
Odds 12.50
Show model details
Implied probability 8%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 96.5%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 16.5%
Odds 6.20
Show model details
Implied probability 16.1%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
SPO – CAS @ 2.26
+10.4%
Edge
Forecast →