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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Guimaraes — Nacional

Predictions Guimaraes vs Nacional January 2, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Guimaraes
Guimaraes
Home · last 5 W W L L L
Kick-off
Fri 02 Jan · 20:45
2:1
Full-time
Nacional
Nacional
W W L L W Away · last 5
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques · Guimaraes Referee Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso, Portugal
Home Win · GUI
51%
Best 1.87
Draw
25%
Best 3.39
Away Win · NAC
24%
Best 4.40
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 3.32
Fair odds
3.14
book 3.32 · +5.6% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 32% · EV +5.6%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (68%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 51.3%
Odds 1.96
Show model details
Implied probability 51%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 23.5%
Odds 4.33
Show model details
Implied probability 23.1%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 25.2%
Odds 3.61
Show model details
Implied probability 27.7%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 58%
Odds 1.79
Show model details
Implied probability 55.9%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 42%
Odds 2.17
Show model details
Implied probability 46.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 31.8%
Odds 3.32
Show model details
Implied probability 30.1%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 78.1%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 10.7%
Odds 9.00
Show model details
Implied probability 11.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 89.3%
Odds 1.08
Show model details
Implied probability 92.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 68.2%
Odds 1.37
Show model details
Implied probability 73%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 21.9%
Odds 3.90
Show model details
Implied probability 25.6%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 53.4%
Odds 1.94
Show model details
Implied probability 51.6%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes
Probability 46.6%
Odds 2.00
Show model details
Implied probability 50%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 51.3%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
AH Away 0
Probability 23.5%
Odds 3.45
Show model details
Implied probability 29%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 48.7%
Odds 1.96
Show model details
Implied probability 51%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 76.5%
Odds 1.25
Show model details
Implied probability 80%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
GUI – NAC @ 3.32
+5.6%
Edge
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