Match SC Braga vs Benfica December 28, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.34 — +5.8% better than the market.

Benfica arrive with a quality edge and a solid defensive record, likely to challenge Braga's home momentum. Braga's recent form shows resilience, but Benfica's pressing and compact block could limit their attacking threat. The pace hints at a moderately open game with chances for both sides, supported by a slight advantage in offensive matchups for Benfica.

Benfica's defensive solidity vs Braga's attack
Home form resilience but away pressing edge
Moderate tempo suggests balanced chances

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 1.34 ✓ Cashed

AI 79% Implied 75% +0.34u

+34%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

BRA 3-4-2-1 · BEN 4-2-3-1

BRA · 3-4-2-1 4-2-3-1 · BEN

18 Víctor ⚽

Subs used · BRA

77'

Grillitsch ↑ ·

Moutinho ↓

77'

Navarro ↑ ·

Victor ↓

77'

Martinez ↑ ·

Dorgeles ↓

86'

Moscardo ↑ ·

Zalazar ↓

90+6'

Oliveira ↑ ·

Gomez ↓

Subs used · BEN

80'

Ivanovic ↑ ·

Barreiro ↓

80'

Prestianni ↑ ·

Sudakov ↓

📊 Statistics

BRA 2 – 2 BEN

49%

Possession (%)

51%

1.76

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.17

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

18 · 2 – 2

15'

▮

Tomás Araújo

Yellow Card

29'

⚽

N. Otamendi

0–1

João Moutinho

Yellow Card

▮

30'

R. Zalazar (P)

Penalty · 1–1

⚽

38'

P. Victor

2–1

⚽

45'

Half-time · 2 – 1

53'

⚽

F. Aursnes

Assist · V. Pavlidis · 2–2

Ricardo Horta

Yellow Card

▮

65'

74'

▮

Richard Ríos

Yellow Card

F. Grillitsch ↓ · J. Moutinho ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

77'

F. Navarro ↓ · P. Victor ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

77'

G. Martinez ↓ · M. Dorgeles ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

77'

80'

⇄

F. Ivanovic ↓ · L. Barreiro ↑

Substitution 1

80'

⇄

G. Prestianni ↓ · G. Sudakov ↑

Substitution 2

Gabriel Moscardo ↓ · R. Zalazar ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

86'

Gabriel Moscardo

Yellow Card

▮

88'

Ricardo Horta

Yellow Card

▮

90+3'

Ricardo Horta

Red Card

▮

90+3'

P. Oliveira ↓ · V. Gomez ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+6'

Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

SC Braga and Benfica drew 2–2. At half-time it was 2–1.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.76 to 1.17. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 5 to 1. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: N. Otamendi (29'), R. Zalazar (38'), P. Victor (45'), F. Aursnes (53'). Ricardo Horta was sent off in the 90+3' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.20 units (Brier 0.197).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.24	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.15	—	54%	Cashed	+1.15	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.88	—	56%	Cashed	+0.88	Cashed
BTTS No	2.00	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.81	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.72	—	48%	Cashed	+0.72	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.47	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.85	—	32%	Cashed	+2.85	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.34	—	79%	Cashed	+0.34	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.38	—	76%	Cashed	+0.38	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.57	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.08	—	93%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Draw	3.40	—	27%	Cashed	+2.40	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.30	—	68%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.25	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.50	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	10.00	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−0.20u	−1% ROI