Match Moreirense vs Tondela January 11, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance 1X at 1.38 — +6.9% better than the market.

Moreirense holds a clear quality edge and home momentum despite recent mixed results. Their defensive solidity should challenge Tondela's modest attack, while Moreirense's offense faces a less resilient away defense, suggesting control in key phases. The pace hints at a moderately open game, but both sides have struggled for consistent form, tempering expectations for a high-scoring affair.

Home defensive compactness vs away offensive limitations
Moreirense's slight form advantage and home comfort
Moderate tempo likely to keep chances measured

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance 1X

Double Chance 1X @ 1.38 ✓ Cashed

AI 77% Implied 72% +0.38u

+38%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

MOR 4-3-3 · TON 4-3-3

MOR · 4-3-3 4-3-3 · TON

10 Bondoso

Subs used · MOR

46'

Landerson ↑ ·

Teguia ↓

69'

Stjepanovic ↑ ·

Assis ↓

69'

Maranhao ↑ ·

Semedo ↓

76'

Marcelo ↑ ·

Michel ↓

76'

Batista ↑ ·

Bondoso ↓

Subs used · TON

67'

Aiko ↑ ·

Hodge ↓

77'

Sithole ↑ ·

Felix ↓

77'

Rodrigues ↑ ·

Rodriguez ↓

82'

Tavares ↑ ·

Cicero ↓

82'

Conceicao ↑ ·

Bebeto ↓

📊 Statistics

MOR 1 – 0 TON

58%

Possession (%)

42%

0.42

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.50

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

86%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

13 · 1 – 0

30'

▮

Joe Hodge

Yellow Card

Afonso Assis

Yellow Card

▮

42'

Half-time · 0 – 0

Landerson ↓ · C. Teguia ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

Maracas

Assist · Alanzinho · 1–0

⚽

62'

67'

⇄

M. Aiko ↓ · J. Hodge ↑

Substitution 1

M. Stjepanovic ↓ · A. Assis ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

69'

Yan Maranhao ↓ · L. Semedo ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

69'

Marcelo ↓ · Michel ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

76'

G. Batista ↓ · Kiko Bondoso ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

76'

77'

⇄

S. Sithole ↓ · H. Felix ↑

Substitution 2

77'

⇄

A. Rodrigues ↓ · J. Rodriguez ↑

Substitution 3

82'

⇄

H. Tavares ↓ · Cicero ↑

Substitution 4

82'

⇄

R. Conceicao ↓ · Bebeto ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Moreirense beat Tondela 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball.

On the scoresheet: Maracas (62').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.65 units (Brier 0.168).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.43	—	49%	Cashed	+1.43	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.68	—	58%	Cashed	+0.68	Cashed
BTTS No	1.85	—	52%	Cashed	+0.85	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.30	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.95	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.70	—	49%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.62	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.31	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.38	—	77%	Cashed	+0.38	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.00	—	32%	Cashed	+2.00	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.40	—	68%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.08	—	89%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.23	—	78%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.17	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.22	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	8.00	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.28	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.65u	−16% ROI