Match Brentford vs Brighton February 21, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance 1X at 1.34 — +6.8% better than the market.

Brentford holds a clear quality edge and home momentum despite mixed recent form. Their offensive edge against Brighton's defense suggests they can create chances, while Brentford's home comfort adds a pressing advantage. Brighton's defensive solidity might keep the scoreline tight, but their struggles on the road and lower recent points per game hint at a tough outing.

Brentford's sharper attack vs Brighton's defense
Home crowd and tactical pressing edge
Brighton's inconsistent away form and lower scoring

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance 1X

Double Chance 1X @ 1.34 ✗ Lost

AI 80% Implied 75% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

BRE 4-2-3-1 · BRI 4-3-3

BRE · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · BRI

9 Thiago

Subs used · BRE

45'

Collins ↑ ·

Hickey ↓

46'

Schade ↑ ·

Lewis-Potter ↓

46'

Yarmolyuk ↑ ·

Janelt ↓

67'

Damsgaard ↑ ·

Henderson ↓

81'

Donovan ↑ ·

Ajer ↓

Subs used · BRI

65'

Veltman ↑ ·

Wieffer ↓

76'

De Cuyper ↑ ·

Gomez ↓

90'

Baleba ↑ ·

Milner ↓

📊 Statistics

BRE 0 – 2 BRI

52%

Possession (%)

48%

1.74

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.11

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

79%

Pass Accuracy (%)

76%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

13 · 0 – 2

12'

▮

Mats Wieffer

Yellow Card

30'

⚽

D. Gomez

0–1

N. Collins ↓ · A. Hickey ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

45'

⚽

D. Welbeck

0–2

Half-time · 0 – 2

K. Schade ↓ · K. Lewis-Potter ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

46'

Y. Yarmolyuk ↓ · V. Janelt ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

46'

54'

▮

Ferdi Kadıoğlu

Yellow Card

65'

⇄

J. Veltman ↓ · M. Wieffer ↑

Substitution 1

M. Damsgaard ↓ · J. Henderson ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

67'

76'

⇄

M. De Cuyper ↓ · D. Gomez ↑

Substitution 2

R. Donovan ↓ · K. Ajer ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

81'

90'

⇄

C. Baleba ↓ · J. Milner ↑

Substitution 3

Yehor Yarmolyuk

Yellow Card

▮

90+2'

Full-time · 0 – 2

Match recap

Brighton won 2–0 away at Brentford. At half-time it was 0–2.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.74 to 1.11. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: D. Gomez (30'), D. Welbeck (45').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.73 units (Brier 0.266).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.07	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.83	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.67	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.27	—	42%	Cashed	+1.27	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.14	—	44%	Cashed	+1.14	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.84	—	44%	Cashed	+0.84	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.65	—	20%	Cashed	+1.65	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.34	—	80%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.00	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.44	—	66%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.53	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.26	—	78%	Cashed	+0.26	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.05	—	94%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	3.90	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.15	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	13.90	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.62	—	20%	Cashed	+2.62	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−0.73u	−4% ROI