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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Nacional — Tondela

Predictions Nacional vs Tondela December 15, 2025 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Nacional
Nacional
Home · last 5 W W L L W
Kick-off
Mon 15 Dec · 17:30
3:1
Full-time
Tondela
Tondela
L D W W L Away · last 5
Referee Ricardo Baixinho, Portugal
Home Win · NAC
50%
Best 2.34
Draw
27%
Best 3.10
Away Win · TON
23%
Best 3.10
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 3.25
Fair odds
3.03
book 3.25 · +7.1% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 33% · EV +7.1%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (67%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 50.1%
Odds 2.40
Show model details
Implied probability 41.7%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 27.4%
Odds 3.35
Show model details
Implied probability 29.9%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 22.6%
Odds 3.30
Show model details
Implied probability 30.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 59%
Odds 1.76
Show model details
Implied probability 56.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 41%
Odds 2.16
Show model details
Implied probability 46.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 33%
Odds 3.25
Show model details
Implied probability 30.8%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 79.2%
Odds 1.28
Show model details
Implied probability 78.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 11.1%
Odds 9.00
Show model details
Implied probability 11.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 88.9%
Odds 1.09
Show model details
Implied probability 91.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.39
Show model details
Implied probability 71.9%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 20.8%
Odds 4.10
Show model details
Implied probability 24.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Top pick
Probability 53.5%
Odds 1.96
Show model details
Implied probability 51%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes
Probability 46.5%
Odds 1.89
Show model details
Implied probability 52.9%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 50.1%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
AH Away 0
Probability 22.6%
Odds 2.28
Show model details
Implied probability 43.9%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 49.9%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 77.4%
Odds 1.38
Show model details
Implied probability 72.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
NAC – TON @ 3.25
+7.1%
Edge
Forecast →