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Home England Premier League Manchester City — Newcastle

Predictions Manchester City vs Newcastle February 21, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Manchester City
Manchester City
Home · last 5 D W W D L
Kick-off
Sat 21 Feb · 20:00
2:1
Full-time
Newcastle
Newcastle
L W D W L Away · last 5
Etihad Stadium · Manchester Referee Thomas Bramall, England
Home Win · MCI
70%
Best 1.50
Draw
19%
Best 4.78
Away Win · NEW
11%
Best 5.73
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 7.00
Fair odds
6.43
book 7.00 · +8.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 16% · EV +8.9%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (84%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 69.8%
Odds 1.51
Show model details
Implied probability 66.2%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 18.9%
Odds 5.33
Show model details
Implied probability 18.8%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 11.4%
Odds 6.50
Show model details
Implied probability 15.4%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 3.5
Probability 57.1%
Odds 1.84
Show model details
Implied probability 54.4%
Bet quality Medium
Over 3.5
Probability 42.9%
Odds 2.13
Show model details
Implied probability 47%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 35.4%
Odds 3.00
Show model details
Implied probability 33.3%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 64.6%
Odds 1.45
Show model details
Implied probability 69%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 15.6%
Odds 7.00
Show model details
Implied probability 14.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.8%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 4.2%
Odds 23.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 84.5%
Odds 1.14
Show model details
Implied probability 87.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 40.1%
Odds 2.55
Show model details
Implied probability 39.2%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 59.9%
Odds 1.60
Show model details
Implied probability 62.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 69.8%
Odds 1.21
Show model details
Implied probability 82.6%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 11.4%
Odds 4.35
Show model details
Implied probability 23%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 88.6%
Odds 1.16
Show model details
Implied probability 86.2%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 30.2%
Odds 2.81
Show model details
Implied probability 35.6%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
MCI – NEW @ 7.00
+8.9%
Edge
Forecast →