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Home England Premier League Chelsea — Burnley

Predictions Chelsea vs Burnley February 21, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Chelsea
Chelsea
Home · last 5 L L D W L
Kick-off
Sat 21 Feb · 15:00
1:1
Full-time
Burnley
Burnley
L L D L D Away · last 5
Stamford Bridge · London Referee Lewis Smith, England
Home Win · CHE
80%
Best 1.22
Draw
15%
Best 6.65
Away Win · BUR
5%
Best 12.50
Value pick
Under 2.5
@ 2.78
Fair odds
2.46
book 2.78 · +13.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 41% · EV +13.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 2.5 is more likely (59%), but Under 2.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 14.8%
Odds 7.50
Show model details
Implied probability 13.3%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win Top pick
Probability 80%
Odds 1.24
Show model details
Implied probability 80.7%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 5.2%
Odds 14.20
Show model details
Implied probability 7%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 3.5 Value pick
Probability 62.3%
Odds 1.77
Show model details
Implied probability 56.5%
Bet quality High
Under 2.5
Probability 40.6%
Odds 2.78
Show model details
Implied probability 36%
Bet quality Medium
Over 3.5
Probability 37.7%
Odds 2.22
Show model details
Implied probability 45.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 19.2%
Odds 6.10
Show model details
Implied probability 16.4%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 59.4%
Odds 1.47
Show model details
Implied probability 68%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 5.1%
Odds 22.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 94.9%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 80.8%
Odds 1.15
Show model details
Implied probability 87%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 53.6%
Odds 1.85
Show model details
Implied probability 54.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes
Probability 46.4%
Odds 2.05
Show model details
Implied probability 48.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 80%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 5.2%
Odds 10.50
Show model details
Implied probability 9.5%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 94.8%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 20%
Odds 4.65
Show model details
Implied probability 21.5%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
CHE – BUR @ 2.78
+13.0%
Edge
Forecast →