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Home England Premier League Aston Villa — Brighton

Predictions Aston Villa vs Brighton February 11, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
Home · last 5 L L D W W
Kick-off
Wed 11 Feb · 19:30
1:0
Full-time
Brighton
Brighton
W L W L L Away · last 5
Villa Park · Birmingham Referee Peter Bankes, England
Home Win · AST
58%
Best 1.99
Draw
24%
Best 3.70
Away Win · BRI
18%
Best 3.68
Value pick
Home Win
@ 1.98
Fair odds
1.74
book 1.98 · +14.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 58% · EV +14.0%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 57.6%
Odds 1.98
Show model details
Implied probability 50.5%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 24.1%
Odds 3.82
Show model details
Implied probability 26.2%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 18.4%
Odds 4.01
Show model details
Implied probability 24.9%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 47.9%
Odds 2.12
Show model details
Implied probability 47.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 52.1%
Odds 1.86
Show model details
Implied probability 53.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 69.3%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 30.7%
Odds 3.00
Show model details
Implied probability 33.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 23.9%
Odds 4.20
Show model details
Implied probability 23.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 93%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 76.1%
Odds 1.26
Show model details
Implied probability 79.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 7%
Odds 13.40
Show model details
Implied probability 7.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 44.9%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 55.1%
Odds 1.68
Show model details
Implied probability 59.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 57.6%
Odds 1.45
Show model details
Implied probability 69%
Bet quality Low
AH Away 0
Probability 18.4%
Odds 2.86
Show model details
Implied probability 35%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 42.5%
Odds 1.92
Show model details
Implied probability 52.1%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 81.7%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Home Win
AST – BRI @ 1.98
+14.0%
Edge
Forecast →