Match Qarabag vs Eintracht Frankfurt January 21, 2026 — Result and Stats
Kick-off
Wed 21 Jan · 17:45
3:2
Full-time
Tofiq Bəhramov adına Respublika stadionu · Baku
Referee Sandro Schärer, Switzerland
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 60% · book 1.57
✓
Miss
Under 1.5
Under 1.5
AI 22% · book 5.50
✗
Miss
Under 0.5
Under 0.5
AI 6% · book 19.50
✗
xG (open play)
1.78 – 1.21
Δ +0.57
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read
AI picks BTTS No at 2.83 — +8.0% better than the market.
Qarabag come into this with a home boost, but Eintracht Frankfurt look better equipped overall and more reliable across the full 90 minutes. Qarabag can create dangerous spells, yet Frankfurt’s stronger control and higher ceiling give them a clearer route to points. Expect chances at both ends, with the away side more likely to avoid defeat than to fully dominate.
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Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No
BTTS No @ 2.83
✗ Lost
AI 38%
Implied 35%
−1.00u
⛀ Lineups
KAR 4-2-3-1 · EIN 3-4-3
📊 Statistics
KAR 3
– 2 EIN
1.78
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
1.21
89%
Pass Accuracy (%)
83%
Match recap
Qarabag beat Eintracht Frankfurt 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.
In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.78 to 1.21. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 1. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.07 units (Brier 0.219).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
17 · 8 W · 9 L
| Market |
Odds |
Closed |
AI |
Result |
P/L · 1u |
|
| Over 2.5 |
1.57 |
— |
60% |
Cashed |
+0.57 |
Cashed
|
| Under 1.5 |
5.50 |
— |
22% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 0.5 |
19.50 |
— |
6% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| BTTS No |
2.83 |
— |
38% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Away Win |
2.24 |
— |
47% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 2.5 |
2.62 |
— |
40% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Double Chance X2 |
1.41 |
— |
73% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 3.5 |
2.43 |
— |
42% |
Cashed |
+1.43 |
Cashed
|
| Draw |
3.90 |
— |
26% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 3.5 |
1.72 |
— |
58% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 0.5 |
1.04 |
— |
94% |
Cashed |
+0.04 |
Cashed
|
| BTTS Yes |
1.48 |
— |
62% |
Cashed |
+0.48 |
Cashed
|
| Double Chance 1X |
1.73 |
— |
53% |
Cashed |
+0.73 |
Cashed
|
| Over 1.5 |
1.17 |
— |
78% |
Cashed |
+0.17 |
Cashed
|
| Home Win |
3.19 |
— |
27% |
Cashed |
+2.19 |
Cashed
|
| AH Away 0 |
1.65 |
— |
47% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| AH Home 0 |
2.32 |
— |
27% |
Cashed |
+1.32 |
Cashed
|
| Total · 17 markets @ 1u each |
— |
— |
— |
8 W · 9 L |
−2.07u |
−12% ROI |
