Match Inter vs Arsenal January 20, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 3.55 — +7.0% better than the market.

Two in-form teams meet at San Siro and it reads like a high-level tactical battle. Inter look slightly more comfortable at home, while Arsenal’s structure and counter threat keep them firmly in it. The draw is very live, yet Inter have a small edge on home ground. Both sides can create enough to score, and the match has upside for goals if the first breakthrough comes early.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5

Over 3.5 @ 3.55 ✓ Cashed

AI 30% Implied 28% +2.55u

+255%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

INT 3-5-2 · ARS 4-3-3

INT · 3-5-2 4-3-3 · ARS

10 Martínez

📊 Statistics

INT 1 – 3 ARS

51%

Possession (%)

49%

1.33

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.12

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

86%

Pass Accuracy (%)

83%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Arsenal won 3–1 away at Inter. At half-time it was 1–2.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.12 to 1.33. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 4. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.18 units (Brier 0.216).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.98	—	53%	Cashed	+0.98	Cashed
Draw	3.56	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.71	—	34%	Cashed	+1.71	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.73	—	59%	Cashed	+0.73	Cashed
BTTS No	2.15	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.07	—	92%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Under 0.5	12.20	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.31	—	75%	Cashed	+0.31	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.75	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.76	—	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.96	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.55	—	30%	Cashed	+2.55	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.35	—	70%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.53	—	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.51	—	62%	Cashed	+0.51	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.98	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.96	—	48%	Cashed	+0.96	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.18u	−7% ROI