Match Marseille vs Ajax September 30, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 1.79 — +4.0% better than the market.

Marseille holds a slight edge at home against Ajax, showing stronger recent form and a better balance between attack and defense. The home side is favored to win, with a moderate chance of a draw. Both teams have shown ability to score, so a goal-scoring game is likely. The total goals are expected to be over 2.5, reflecting an open match with attacking intent from both sides.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes

BTTS Yes @ 1.79 ✗ Lost

AI 58% Implied 56% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

MAR 4-2-3-1 · AJA 4-3-3

MAR · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · AJA

97 Aubameyang ⚽

Subs used · MAR

36'

Egan-Riley ↑ ·

Medina ↓

46'

Weah ↑ ·

Nadir ↓

62'

Gomes ↑ ·

Paixão ↓

62'

Højbjerg ↑ ·

O'Riley ↓

82'

Murillo ↑ ·

Vermeeren ↓

Subs used · AJA

23'

Mokio ↑ ·

Regeer ↓

46'

Edvardsen ↑ ·

Berghuis ↓

55'

Šutalo ↑ ·

Baas ↓

55'

Gaaei ↑ ·

Wijndal ↓

84'

Moro ↑ ·

Godts ↓

📊 Statistics

MAR 4 – 0 AJA

48%

Possession (%)

52%

1.15

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.73

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

88%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

19 · 4 – 0

Igor Paixão

Assist · Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · 1–0

⚽

Igor Paixão

Assist · Arthur Vermeeren · 2–0

⚽

12'

23'

⇄

Jorthy Mokio ↓ · Youri Regeer ↑

Substitution 1

Mason Greenwood

Assist · Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · 3–0

⚽

26'

34'

▮

Lucas Rosa

Yellow Card

Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley ↓ · Facundo Medina ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

36'

Half-time · 3 – 0

Timothy Weah ↓ · Bilal Nadir ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

46'

⇄

Oliver Edvardsen ↓ · Steven Berghuis ↑

Substitution 2

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang

Assist · Igor Paixão · 4–0

⚽

52'

55'

⇄

Josip Šutalo ↓ · Youri Baas ↑

Substitution 3

55'

⇄

Anton Gaaei ↓ · Owen Wijndal ↑

Substitution 4

Angel Gomes ↓ · Igor Paixão ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

62'

Pierre-Emile Højbjerg ↓ · Matt O'Riley ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

62'

66'

▮

Ko Itakura

Yellow Card

76'

▮

Anton Gaaei

Yellow Card

Pierre-Emile Højbjerg

Yellow Card

▮

79'

Amir Murillo ↓ · Arthur Vermeeren ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

82'

84'

⇄

Raúl Moro ↓ · Mika Godts ↑

Substitution 5

Nayef Aguerd

Yellow Card

▮

88'

Full-time · 4 – 0

Match recap

Marseille beat Ajax 4–0 at home. At half-time it was 3–0.

In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 13 shots to 9, 2 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 0. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.15 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Igor Paixão (6'), Igor Paixão (12'), Mason Greenwood (26'), Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (52').

Model audit for this match: of 5 graded markets, 4 landed and 1 missed, for a net +0.47 units (Brier 0.128).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

5 · 4 W · 1 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.52	—	66%	Cashed	+0.52	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.60	—	63%	Cashed	+0.60	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.79	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.21	—	83%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.14	—	88%	Cashed	+0.14	Cashed
Total · 5 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	4 W · 1 L	+0.47u	+9% ROI