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Home France Ligue 1 Monaco — Marseille

Predictions Monaco vs Marseille April 5, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Monaco
Monaco
Home · last 5 D D W L L
Kick-off
Sun 05 Apr · 18:45
2:1
Full-time
Marseille
Marseille
L D L W W Away · last 5
Stade Louis II · Monaco Referee Clement Turpin, France
Home Win · MON
38%
Best 2.09
Draw
25%
Best 3.68
Away Win · MAR
38%
Best 3.25
Value pick
Double Chance X2
@ 1.76
Fair odds
1.60
book 1.76 · +9.8% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
High
p 62% · EV +9.8%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Double Chance 1X is more likely (63%), but Double Chance X2 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 37.6%
Odds 2.19
Show model details
Implied probability 45.7%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 37.5%
Odds 3.42
Show model details
Implied probability 29.2%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 24.9%
Odds 3.75
Show model details
Implied probability 26.7%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 3.5
Probability 41.7%
Odds 2.50
Show model details
Implied probability 40%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 63%
Odds 1.65
Show model details
Implied probability 60.6%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 58.3%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 37%
Odds 2.48
Show model details
Implied probability 40.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 82.9%
Odds 1.20
Show model details
Implied probability 83.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.1%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 17.1%
Odds 5.00
Show model details
Implied probability 20%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 4.9%
Odds 16.00
Show model details
Implied probability 6.3%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 36.5%
Odds 2.52
Show model details
Implied probability 39.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 63.5%
Odds 1.51
Show model details
Implied probability 66.2%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 37.5%
Odds 2.44
Show model details
Implied probability 41%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 37.6%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 62.4%
Odds 1.76
Show model details
Implied probability 56.8%
Bet quality High
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 62.5%
Odds 1.37
Show model details
Implied probability 73%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
MON – MAR @ 1.76
+9.8%
Edge
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