Match Marseille vs Lille March 22, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.94 — +13.5% better than the market.

Marseille holds a clear quality edge and home momentum, boasting a stronger attack and a compact defense that challenges Lille's offense. Their recent form shows resilience, while Lille's away struggles and slightly weaker defense suggest Marseille can control the pace. Expect a lively game with Marseille pressing high and exploiting set-piece chances.

Home attacking edge vs Lille's defense
Marseille's solid recent form
Likely open tempo favoring Marseille's pressing style

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 1.94 ✗ Lost

AI 59% Implied 52% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

MAR 4-2-3-1 · LIL 4-2-3-1

MAR · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · LIL

17 Aubameyang

Subs used · MAR

18'

Nwaneri ↑ ·

Greenwood ↓

65'

Gouiri ↑ ·

Kondogbia ↓

75'

J. Traore ↑

90'

Nadir ↑ ·

Timber ↓

Subs used · LIL

45+8'

Bodart ↑ ·

Ozer ↓

78'

Giroud ↑ ·

Correia ↓

78'

Perraud ↑ ·

Verdonk ↓

90'

Mbemba ↑ ·

Haraldsson ↓

📊 Statistics

MAR 1 – 2 LIL

55%

Possession (%)

45%

0.60

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.97

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

89%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 1 – 2

▮

Nathan Ngoy

Yellow Card

Mason Greenwood

Yellow Card

▮

13'

▮

Hakon Arnar Haraldsson

Yellow Card

13'

▮

Calvin Verdonk

Yellow Card

E. Nwaneri ↓ · M. Greenwood ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

18'

E. Nwaneri

Assist · I. Paixao · 1–0

⚽

43'

Half-time · 1 – 0

49'

⚽

T. Meunier

1–1

45+8'

⇄

A. Bodart ↓ · B. Ozer ↑

Substitution 1

A. Gouiri ↓ · G. Kondogbia ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

65'

H. J. Traore ↓ ·

Substitution 3

⇄

75'

78'

⇄

O. Giroud ↓ · F. Correia ↑

Substitution 2

78'

⇄

R. Perraud ↓ · C. Verdonk ↑

Substitution 3

86'

⚽

O. Giroud

Assist · T. Meunier · 1–2

B. Nadir ↓ · Q. Timber ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90'

⇄

C. Mbemba ↓ · H. Haraldsson ↑

Substitution 4

Full-time · 1 – 2

Match recap

Lille won 2–1 away at Marseille. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 55% of the ball. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: E. Nwaneri (43'), T. Meunier (49'), O. Giroud (86').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.62 units (Brier 0.243).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.94	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.84	—	59%	Cashed	+0.84	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.71	—	59%	Cashed	+0.71	Cashed
BTTS No	2.20	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.12	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.96	—	41%	Cashed	+0.96	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.00	—	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.42	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.28	—	82%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.42	—	63%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.26	—	81%	Cashed	+0.26	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.05	—	94%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	3.90	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.03	—	18%	Cashed	+2.03	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.20	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	13.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.11	—	18%	Cashed	+3.11	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−0.62u	−4% ROI