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Home England Premier League Newcastle — Aston Villa

Predictions Newcastle vs Aston Villa January 25, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Newcastle
Newcastle
Home · last 5 L W D W L
Kick-off
Sun 25 Jan · 14:00
0:2
Full-time
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
L L D W W Away · last 5
St. James' Park · Newcastle upon Tyne Referee Jarred Gillett, Australia
Home Win · NEW
41%
Best 2.06
Draw
24%
Best 3.63
Away Win · AST
35%
Best 3.48
Value pick
Double Chance X2
@ 1.87
Fair odds
1.69
book 1.87 · +10.7% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
High
p 59% · EV +10.7%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Double Chance 1X is more likely (65%), but Double Chance X2 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 40.8%
Odds 2.05
Show model details
Implied probability 48.8%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 34.8%
Odds 3.76
Show model details
Implied probability 26.6%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 24.4%
Odds 3.85
Show model details
Implied probability 26%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 43.8%
Odds 2.32
Show model details
Implied probability 43.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 56.2%
Odds 1.71
Show model details
Implied probability 58.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 34.3%
Odds 2.70
Show model details
Implied probability 37%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 65.7%
Odds 1.52
Show model details
Implied probability 65.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 21.5%
Odds 4.60
Show model details
Implied probability 21.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 93.9%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 78.6%
Odds 1.22
Show model details
Implied probability 82%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 6.1%
Odds 15.50
Show model details
Implied probability 6.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 42.1%
Odds 2.45
Show model details
Implied probability 40.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 57.9%
Odds 1.60
Show model details
Implied probability 62.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 34.8%
Odds 2.76
Show model details
Implied probability 36.2%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 40.8%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 59.2%
Odds 1.87
Show model details
Implied probability 53.5%
Bet quality High
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 65.2%
Odds 1.32
Show model details
Implied probability 75.8%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
NEW – AST @ 1.87
+10.7%
Edge
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