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Home France Ligue 1 Marseille — Lens

Predictions Marseille vs Lens January 24, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Marseille
Marseille
Home · last 5 L D L W W
Kick-off
Sat 24 Jan · 20:05
3:1
Full-time
Lens
Lens
D D W L W Away · last 5
Orange Vélodrome · Marseille Referee Benoît Bastien, France
Home Win · MAR
56%
Best 2.10
Draw
24%
Best 3.78
Away Win · LEN
20%
Best 3.20
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 2.65
Fair odds
2.44
book 2.65 · +8.8% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 41% · EV +8.8%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (59%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 55.9%
Odds 2.07
Show model details
Implied probability 48.3%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 24.2%
Odds 3.82
Show model details
Implied probability 26.2%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 19.9%
Odds 3.68
Show model details
Implied probability 27.2%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 3.5
Probability 41.1%
Odds 2.65
Show model details
Implied probability 37.7%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 62.7%
Odds 1.69
Show model details
Implied probability 59.2%
Bet quality Medium
Under 2.5
Probability 37.3%
Odds 2.38
Show model details
Implied probability 42%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 59%
Odds 1.55
Show model details
Implied probability 64.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 83%
Odds 1.21
Show model details
Implied probability 82.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.4%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 17%
Odds 5.00
Show model details
Implied probability 20%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 4.6%
Odds 17.00
Show model details
Implied probability 5.9%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 37.2%
Odds 2.51
Show model details
Implied probability 39.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.56
Show model details
Implied probability 64.1%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 19.9%
Odds 2.69
Show model details
Implied probability 37.2%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 55.9%
Odds 1.52
Show model details
Implied probability 65.8%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 44.2%
Odds 1.85
Show model details
Implied probability 54.1%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 80.1%
Odds 1.33
Show model details
Implied probability 75.2%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
MAR – LEN @ 2.65
+8.8%
Edge
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