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Home France Ligue 1 Paris Saint Germain — Lille

Predictions Paris Saint Germain vs Lille January 16, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
Home · last 5 W D W W L
Kick-off
Fri 16 Jan · 20:00
3:0
Full-time
Lille
Lille
D W D W L Away · last 5
Parc des Princes · Paris Referee Jérôme Brisard, France
Home Win · PSG
71%
Best 1.30
Draw
20%
Best 6.05
Away Win · LIL
10%
Best 8.80
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 2.36
Fair odds
2.22
book 2.36 · +6.3% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 45% · EV +6.3%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (55%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 70.7%
Odds 1.48
Show model details
Implied probability 67.6%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 19.7%
Odds 5.01
Show model details
Implied probability 20%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 9.6%
Odds 7.70
Show model details
Implied probability 13%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 3.5
Probability 45.1%
Odds 2.36
Show model details
Implied probability 42.4%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 55%
Odds 1.69
Show model details
Implied probability 59.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 33.6%
Odds 2.63
Show model details
Implied probability 38%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 66.4%
Odds 1.53
Show model details
Implied probability 65.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 85.4%
Odds 1.17
Show model details
Implied probability 85.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 96%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 14.6%
Odds 6.00
Show model details
Implied probability 16.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 4%
Odds 19.50
Show model details
Implied probability 5.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Top pick
Probability 61.7%
Odds 1.71
Show model details
Implied probability 58.5%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS No
Probability 38.3%
Odds 2.25
Show model details
Implied probability 44.4%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 70.7%
Odds 1.16
Show model details
Implied probability 86.2%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 9.6%
Odds 5.25
Show model details
Implied probability 19.1%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 90.4%
Odds 1.13
Show model details
Implied probability 88.5%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 29.3%
Odds 2.96
Show model details
Implied probability 33.8%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
PSG – LIL @ 2.36
+6.3%
Edge
Forecast →