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Home France Ligue 1 Paris Saint Germain — Paris FC

Predictions Paris Saint Germain vs Paris FC January 4, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
Home · last 5 W D W W L
Kick-off
Sun 04 Jan · 19:45
2:1
Full-time
Paris FC
Paris FC
W L W L W Away · last 5
Parc des Princes · Paris Referee Benoît Bastien, France
Home Win · PSG
81%
Best 1.14
Draw
15%
Best 8.50
Away Win · PAR
4%
Best 18.00
Value pick
Draw
@ 7.60
Fair odds
6.79
book 7.60 · +11.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 15% · EV +11.9%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (81%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 14.7%
Odds 7.60
Show model details
Implied probability 13.2%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win Top pick
Probability 81.4%
Odds 1.22
Show model details
Implied probability 82%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 3.9%
Odds 19.00
Show model details
Implied probability 5.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 3.5 Value pick
Probability 55.2%
Odds 1.94
Show model details
Implied probability 51.6%
Bet quality Medium
Over 3.5
Probability 44.8%
Odds 2.01
Show model details
Implied probability 49.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 33.5%
Odds 3.25
Show model details
Implied probability 30.8%
Bet quality Medium
Under 1.5
Probability 14.7%
Odds 7.50
Show model details
Implied probability 13.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.9%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 85.3%
Odds 1.12
Show model details
Implied probability 89.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 4.1%
Odds 23.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 66.5%
Odds 1.39
Show model details
Implied probability 71.9%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Top pick
Probability 51.9%
Odds 2.04
Show model details
Implied probability 49%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS No
Probability 48.1%
Odds 1.87
Show model details
Implied probability 53.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 81.4%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 3.9%
Odds 13.50
Show model details
Implied probability 7.4%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 96.1%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 18.6%
Odds 5.10
Show model details
Implied probability 19.6%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
PSG – PAR @ 7.60
+11.9%
Edge
Forecast →