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Home England Premier League Brighton — Burnley

Predictions Brighton vs Burnley January 3, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Brighton
Brighton
Home · last 5 W L W L L
Kick-off
Sat 03 Jan · 15:00
2:0
Full-time
Burnley
Burnley
L L D L D Away · last 5
American Express Stadium · Falmer, East Sussex Referee Tim Robinson, England
Home Win · BRI
68%
Best 1.46
Draw
21%
Best 4.60
Away Win · BUR
10%
Best 7.00
Value pick
Under 2.5
@ 2.20
Fair odds
2.05
book 2.20 · +7.2% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 49% · EV +7.2%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 2.5 is more likely (51%), but Under 2.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 68.4%
Odds 1.54
Show model details
Implied probability 64.9%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 21.2%
Odds 4.52
Show model details
Implied probability 22.1%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 10.4%
Odds 7.00
Show model details
Implied probability 14.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 48.7%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds 1.85
Show model details
Implied probability 54.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 24.4%
Odds 4.35
Show model details
Implied probability 23%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 70%
Odds 1.47
Show model details
Implied probability 68%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 30%
Odds 2.90
Show model details
Implied probability 34.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 7%
Odds 14.90
Show model details
Implied probability 6.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 93%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 75.6%
Odds 1.24
Show model details
Implied probability 80.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 50.9%
Odds 2.01
Show model details
Implied probability 49.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes
Probability 49.1%
Odds 1.89
Show model details
Implied probability 52.9%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 68.4%
Odds 1.19
Show model details
Implied probability 84%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 10.4%
Odds 5.09
Show model details
Implied probability 19.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 31.6%
Odds 2.68
Show model details
Implied probability 37.3%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 89.6%
Odds 1.15
Show model details
Implied probability 87%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
BRI – BUR @ 2.20
+7.2%
Edge
Forecast →