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Home England Premier League Manchester City — Chelsea

Predictions Manchester City vs Chelsea January 4, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Manchester City
Manchester City
Home · last 5 D W W D L
Kick-off
Sun 04 Jan · 17:30
1:1
Full-time
Chelsea
Chelsea
L L D W L Away · last 5
Etihad Stadium · Manchester Referee Michael Oliver, England
Home Win · MCI
65%
Best 1.56
Draw
21%
Best 4.60
Away Win · CHE
15%
Best 5.50
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 2.36
Fair odds
2.16
book 2.36 · +9.1% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 46% · EV +9.1%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (54%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 64.6%
Odds 1.68
Show model details
Implied probability 59.5%
Bet quality High
Draw
Probability 20.5%
Odds 4.75
Show model details
Implied probability 21.1%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 15%
Odds 4.90
Show model details
Implied probability 20.4%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 3.5
Probability 46.2%
Odds 2.36
Show model details
Implied probability 42.4%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 53.8%
Odds 1.71
Show model details
Implied probability 58.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 32.5%
Odds 2.67
Show model details
Implied probability 37.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 67.5%
Odds 1.52
Show model details
Implied probability 65.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 85.6%
Odds 1.17
Show model details
Implied probability 85.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 96.2%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 14.4%
Odds 5.80
Show model details
Implied probability 17.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 3.8%
Odds 20.00
Show model details
Implied probability 5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 36.3%
Odds 2.49
Show model details
Implied probability 40.2%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 63.7%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 64.6%
Odds 1.31
Show model details
Implied probability 76.3%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 15%
Odds 3.68
Show model details
Implied probability 27.2%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 35.4%
Odds 2.36
Show model details
Implied probability 42.4%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 85%
Odds 1.22
Show model details
Implied probability 82%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
MCI – CHE @ 2.36
+9.1%
Edge
Forecast →