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Home Italy Serie A Sassuolo — AC Milan

Predictions Sassuolo vs AC Milan May 3, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
Home · last 5 D W L L L
Kick-off
Sun 03 May · 13:00
2:0
Full-time
AC Milan
AC Milan
D L L W L Away · last 5
Referee Fabio Maresca, Italy
Home Win · SAS
15%
Best 4.75
Draw
22%
Best 4.26
Away Win · MIL
63%
Best 1.78
Value pick
Under 0.5
@ 14.50
Fair odds
13.00
book 14.50 · +11.5% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 8% · EV +11.5%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 0.5 is more likely (92%), but Under 0.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Top pick
Probability 62.5%
Odds 1.76
Show model details
Implied probability 56.8%
Bet quality High
Draw
Probability 22.3%
Odds 4.30
Show model details
Implied probability 23.3%
Bet quality Low
Home Win
Probability 15.3%
Odds 4.75
Show model details
Implied probability 21.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 49.7%
Odds 2.21
Show model details
Implied probability 45.3%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 50.3%
Odds 1.78
Show model details
Implied probability 56.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 29.3%
Odds 2.75
Show model details
Implied probability 36.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 25.4%
Odds 4.33
Show model details
Implied probability 23.1%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 70.8%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 7.7%
Odds 14.50
Show model details
Implied probability 6.9%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 92.3%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 74.6%
Odds 1.22
Show model details
Implied probability 82%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 48.1%
Odds 2.15
Show model details
Implied probability 46.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 51.9%
Odds 1.75
Show model details
Implied probability 57.1%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Top pick
Probability 62.5%
Odds 1.32
Show model details
Implied probability 75.8%
Bet quality Medium
AH Home 0
Probability 15.3%
Odds 3.30
Show model details
Implied probability 30.3%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X
Probability 37.5%
Odds 2.18
Show model details
Implied probability 45.9%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 84.7%
Odds 1.23
Show model details
Implied probability 81.3%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 0.5
SAS – MIL @ 14.50
+11.5%
Edge
Forecast →