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Home Italy Serie A Napoli — Lazio

Predictions Napoli vs Lazio April 18, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Napoli
Napoli
Home · last 5 W D L W W
Kick-off
Sat 18 Apr · 16:00
0:2
Full-time
Lazio
Lazio
D W L L W Away · last 5
Referee Luca Zufferli, Italy
Home Win · NAP
66%
Best 1.53
Draw
24%
Best 3.90
Away Win · LAZ
11%
Best 7.00
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 3.20
Fair odds
2.90
book 3.20 · +10.5% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 35% · EV +10.5%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (65%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 65.9%
Odds 1.65
Show model details
Implied probability 60.6%
Bet quality High
Draw
Probability 23.6%
Odds 4.00
Show model details
Implied probability 25%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 10.6%
Odds 7.00
Show model details
Implied probability 14.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 61.5%
Odds 1.71
Show model details
Implied probability 58.5%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 38.5%
Odds 2.32
Show model details
Implied probability 43.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 34.5%
Odds 3.20
Show model details
Implied probability 31.3%
Bet quality Medium
Over 1.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds 1.42
Show model details
Implied probability 70.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 11.3%
Odds 9.50
Show model details
Implied probability 10.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 80.9%
Odds 1.24
Show model details
Implied probability 80.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 88.7%
Odds 1.09
Show model details
Implied probability 91.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 19.2%
Odds 4.33
Show model details
Implied probability 23.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 59%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes
Probability 41%
Odds 2.25
Show model details
Implied probability 44.4%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 65.9%
Odds 1.21
Show model details
Implied probability 82.6%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 10.6%
Odds 4.86
Show model details
Implied probability 20.6%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 34.2%
Odds 2.45
Show model details
Implied probability 40.8%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 89.4%
Odds 1.15
Show model details
Implied probability 87%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
NAP – LAZ @ 3.20
+10.5%
Edge
Forecast →