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Home Italy Serie A Napoli — Lecce

Predictions Napoli vs Lecce March 14, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Napoli
Napoli
Home · last 5 W D L W W
Kick-off
Sat 14 Mar · 17:00
2:1
Full-time
Lecce
Lecce
D W L W W Away · last 5
Referee Rosario Abisso, Italy
Home Win · NAP
74%
Best 1.41
Draw
20%
Best 4.53
Away Win · LEC
7%
Best 9.20
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 3.10
Fair odds
2.70
book 3.10 · +14.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
3
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 37% · EV +14.9%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (63%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 73.7%
Odds 1.39
Show model details
Implied probability 71.9%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 19.7%
Odds 5.01
Show model details
Implied probability 20%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 6.7%
Odds 11.00
Show model details
Implied probability 9.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 63%
Odds 1.76
Show model details
Implied probability 56.8%
Bet quality High
Over 2.5
Probability 37%
Odds 2.24
Show model details
Implied probability 44.6%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 37.1%
Odds 3.10
Show model details
Implied probability 32.3%
Bet quality Medium
Over 1.5
Probability 62.9%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 12.6%
Odds 9.00
Show model details
Implied probability 11.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.26
Show model details
Implied probability 79.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 87.5%
Odds 1.08
Show model details
Implied probability 92.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 17.8%
Odds 4.25
Show model details
Implied probability 23.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 66.9%
Odds 1.48
Show model details
Implied probability 67.6%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes
Probability 33.1%
Odds 2.82
Show model details
Implied probability 35.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 73.7%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 90.9%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 6.7%
Odds 6.95
Show model details
Implied probability 14.4%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 93.3%
Odds 1.08
Show model details
Implied probability 92.6%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 26.3%
Odds 3.45
Show model details
Implied probability 29%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
NAP – LEC @ 3.10
+14.9%
Edge
Forecast →