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Home Italy Serie A AC Milan — Parma

Predictions AC Milan vs Parma February 22, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
AC Milan
AC Milan
Home · last 5 D L L W L
Kick-off
Sun 22 Feb · 17:00
0:1
Full-time
Parma
Parma
W L L L W Away · last 5
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza · Milano Referee Marco Piccinini, Italy
Home Win · MIL
75%
Best 1.36
Draw
18%
Best 4.93
Away Win · PAR
6%
Best 8.90
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 4.10
Fair odds
3.96
book 4.10 · +3.5% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 25% · EV +3.5%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (75%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 75.2%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.5%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 18.4%
Odds 5.51
Show model details
Implied probability 18.2%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 6.4%
Odds 11.50
Show model details
Implied probability 8.7%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 49.6%
Odds 2.08
Show model details
Implied probability 48.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 50.4%
Odds 1.87
Show model details
Implied probability 53.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 28.8%
Odds 3.10
Show model details
Implied probability 32.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 25.3%
Odds 4.10
Show model details
Implied probability 24.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 7.4%
Odds 13.30
Show model details
Implied probability 7.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 92.6%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 74.8%
Odds 1.28
Show model details
Implied probability 78.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes
Probability 42.5%
Odds 2.29
Show model details
Implied probability 43.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 57.6%
Odds 1.68
Show model details
Implied probability 59.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 75.2%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 90.9%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 6.4%
Odds 7.00
Show model details
Implied probability 14.3%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 93.6%
Odds 1.08
Show model details
Implied probability 92.6%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 24.8%
Odds 3.68
Show model details
Implied probability 27.2%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
MIL – PAR @ 4.10
+3.5%
Edge
Forecast →