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Home Italy Serie A Genoa — Cagliari

Predictions Genoa vs Cagliari January 12, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Genoa
Genoa
Home · last 5 L D D L L
Kick-off
Mon 12 Jan · 17:30
3:0
Full-time
Cagliari
Cagliari
W D L W W Away · last 5
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris · Genova Referee Federico La Penna, Italy
Home Win · GEN
39%
Best 2.16
Draw
30%
Best 2.97
Away Win · CAG
32%
Best 4.00
Value pick
Double Chance X2
@ 1.78
Fair odds
1.63
book 1.78 · +9.5% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
High
p 62% · EV +9.5%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Double Chance 1X is more likely (68%), but Double Chance X2 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 38.5%
Odds 2.21
Show model details
Implied probability 45.3%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 31.6%
Odds 4.43
Show model details
Implied probability 22.6%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 29.9%
Odds 3.10
Show model details
Implied probability 32.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 1.5
Probability 37.1%
Odds 2.65
Show model details
Implied probability 37.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 36.3%
Odds 2.70
Show model details
Implied probability 37%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 62.9%
Odds 1.58
Show model details
Implied probability 63.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 63.7%
Odds 1.53
Show model details
Implied probability 65.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 87.1%
Odds 1.13
Show model details
Implied probability 88.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.19
Show model details
Implied probability 84%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 17.5%
Odds 5.50
Show model details
Implied probability 18.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 12.9%
Odds 7.00
Show model details
Implied probability 14.3%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 57.3%
Odds 1.72
Show model details
Implied probability 58.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes
Probability 42.7%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 31.6%
Odds 3.01
Show model details
Implied probability 33.2%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 38.5%
Odds 1.46
Show model details
Implied probability 68.5%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 61.5%
Odds 1.78
Show model details
Implied probability 56.2%
Bet quality High
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 68.4%
Odds 1.27
Show model details
Implied probability 78.7%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
GEN – CAG @ 1.78
+9.5%
Edge
Forecast →