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Home Italy Serie A Lazio — Napoli

Predictions Lazio vs Napoli January 4, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Lazio
Lazio
Home · last 5 D W L L W
Kick-off
Sun 04 Jan · 11:30
0:2
Full-time
Napoli
Napoli
W D L W W Away · last 5
Referee Davide Massa, Italy
Home Win · LAZ
21%
Best 3.65
Draw
29%
Best 2.98
Away Win · NAP
50%
Best 2.25
Value pick
Over 2.5
@ 2.66
Fair odds
2.34
book 2.66 · +13.7% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 43% · EV +13.7%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 2.5 is more likely (57%), but Over 2.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Top pick
Probability 50.1%
Odds 2.42
Show model details
Implied probability 41.3%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 29%
Odds 3.15
Show model details
Implied probability 31.8%
Bet quality Low
Home Win
Probability 20.9%
Odds 3.60
Show model details
Implied probability 27.8%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 2.5
Probability 42.7%
Odds 2.66
Show model details
Implied probability 37.6%
Bet quality Medium
Under 1.5
Probability 31.8%
Odds 2.63
Show model details
Implied probability 38%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 68.3%
Odds 1.53
Show model details
Implied probability 65.4%
Bet quality Medium
Over 3.5
Probability 22.3%
Odds 5.30
Show model details
Implied probability 18.9%
Bet quality Medium
Under 2.5
Probability 57.3%
Odds 1.58
Show model details
Implied probability 63.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 90%
Odds 1.12
Show model details
Implied probability 89.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 77.7%
Odds 1.19
Show model details
Implied probability 84%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 10.1%
Odds 8.00
Show model details
Implied probability 12.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes
Probability 47%
Odds 2.16
Show model details
Implied probability 46.3%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 53%
Odds 1.74
Show model details
Implied probability 57.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 50.1%
Odds 1.67
Show model details
Implied probability 59.9%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0
Probability 20.9%
Odds 2.41
Show model details
Implied probability 41.5%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X
Probability 49.9%
Odds 1.64
Show model details
Implied probability 61%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 79.1%
Odds 1.35
Show model details
Implied probability 74.1%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 2.5
LAZ – NAP @ 2.66
+13.7%
Edge
Forecast →