Match Larne vs Tre Fiori July 14, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.53 — +10.9% better than the market.

Larne enters this UEFA Champions League clash with clear home momentum, having secured a recent win while Tre Fiori struggles with a loss. The home side's slight edge in form and the tendency for a tighter, lower-scoring game is supported by market signals favoring under 2.5 goals and a no BTTS outcome. Expect Larne to leverage their home comfort and compact defensive setup to control the pace and limit Tre Fiori's attacking chances.

Home momentum from recent win
Defensive solidity likely to keep goals low
Market hints at a cautious tempo and limited scoring

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.53 ✓ Cashed

AI 73% Implied 65% +0.53u

+53%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

LAR 4-3-3 · TRE 4-2-3-1

LAR · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · TRE 1 Ferguson

23 Cosgrove

26 Bent

3 Ridley

15 Doherty

6 Gallagher

11 Graham 7 McKendry

30 Lusty 17 Nardi

2 D'Addario

5 Rea

3 Sancisi

4 Sami

20 Benedettini

📊 Statistics

LAR 2 – 1 TRE

68%

Possession (%)

32%

12

Total Shots

7

4

Shots on Target

3

8

Shots off Target

4

5

Corner Kicks

1

Yellow Cards

4

Match recap

Larne beat Tre Fiori 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 68% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 12 shots to 7, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 5 to 1. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -6.08 units (Brier 0.130).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.38	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.38	—	30%	Cashed	+1.38	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.55	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	15.50	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.53	—	73%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
BTTS No	1.57	—	70%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	16.00	—	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	14.00	—	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	5.00	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	4.65	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	6.35	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.03	—	86%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Home Win	1.18	—	70%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.57	—	50%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.04	—	70%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.02	—	84%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.17	—	71%	Cashed	+0.17	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−6.08u	−36% ROI